The three phases of technology and what they mean for your strategy

The three phases of technology and what they mean for your strategy

Every 10–15 years, the technology industry experiences a reset: a new platform sets the standard for the next era. This cycle, which Benedict Evans describes as the development of new technologies along “S-curves”, moves through the phases “Why is this useful?”, “Exciting” and “Boring”, rather like the classic product life-cycle model.

Phase 1: why is this useful?

Initially, we often ask: “Why is this useful?” Scepticism is common at this stage, and the benefits of new technologies are not immediately apparent. As a leader, it is crucial to remain open and foster a culture of exploration and experimentation.

Phase 2: hype – exciting!

As the technology matures, things become exciting. The hype arrives; generative AI is a current example. Applications become clearer and interest gathers momentum. This is the time for companies to invest and integrate innovation into their strategy. Leaders need to carry that momentum forward and ensure their teams seize the new opportunities.

Phase 3: boring

Eventually, the technology becomes “boring”, but that is a good thing. It is integrated so seamlessly that we hardly notice its value. This phase represents maturity and challenges leaders to anticipate the next curve.

The practical application in everyday work

For leaders, it is crucial to understand this cycle and prepare for the next wave. Now, on the verge of another technology reset, ask yourself: how can we use this cycle to thrive? What impact will the new cycle have on our market and business model? How do we want to position ourselves for the long term?

Here is something practical you can do immediately: draw an S-curve and place the technologies relevant to your business along it, from “Why is this useful?” to “Hype” and “Boring”. Ask your colleagues to do the same. Then meet for the kick-off of your strategy update and overlay your S-curves. It is usually an exciting exercise, anything but boring, that helps you actively and consciously shape the future.